Condensing Texas With Ohio Counts as Messin' With Texas

Photo by Matt Wright

Read Marc Ambinder on the Texas primaucus. It warms my heart to see that in a primary system that's funky nationwide, Texas has nevertheless carved out an especially screwball way of doing things. Obama fans may take heart: All the talk of the race coming down to Texas and Ohio ignores the fact that they are different states with very different methods for choosing delegates. Ambinder (emphasis added):

[T]here aren't any delegates awarded to the winner of [Texas]—no statewide bonus delegates, nothing. For another, a third of the delegates will be chosen through a complicated caucus system.

And instead of proportional allocation by congressional district, the rest of the delegates will be proportionally allocated by state senate districts. George W. Bush's '04 performance really changes the math. That's because the number of delegates allocated in those districts are based on how well (or poorly) John Kerry did, as well as the performance of the last Democratic gubernatorial candidate (who himself had votes taken away by a liberal third party challenger.)

The delegate-rich districts are the most heavily liberal state senate districts. According to this calculation, they're in Austin and in two of the most concentrated African American parts of the state. Advantage: Obama.

Clinton will get plenty of support from Latino voters, but they tend to be more spread out and thus will see their votes somewhat diluted in the 31 separate primaries. In order to "win"—both enough delegates and statewide, you need to organize what amounts to caucus-like campaigns in each of these districts.

The white vote in Texas will probably split, with Obama taking men and Clinton taking women. Though Latinos make up a slightly larger share of the electorate than African Americans, they tend to vote in lower proportions.

The process has two steps. First, folks vote. 126 delegates will be accorded proportionally via state senate district. Then, when polls close, they caucus in more than 1,000 precincts.

So the state senate districts are determined by some equation factoring the performances of John Kerry and Chris Bell. (This doesn't quite make sense, since Kerry ran in 2004 and the last gubernatorial contest was in 2006, but I guess that the math accounts for the disparity.) That "liberal third party challenger" is Kinky Friedman, bless his heart, that old hellraiser. Ambinder needs to know that in the primary, those voters who supported Friedman (and Nader before him in 2000) have all glommed onto the "Paulistinian" plight. The white vote will not split evenly: Ron Paul will siphon voters from Obama in the most liberal, delegate-rich districts.* And as Chris Hayes learned the hard way, it's unwise to forget about Mike Gravel.

Be that as it may, the Lone Star Primaucus sounds to be better news for Obama than the Ohio primary. His campaign made the decision to send the South Carolina team there, and may their efforts not be wasted. The last poll, conducted in January, is not emboldening—with Clinton at 48% and Obama at 38%—but there have been momentum-shifting contests since then and polls don't necessarily tell the story in a primaucus contest.

Needless to say it will thrill me to no end to see this contest come down to Texas (and Ohio). If Obama shaves even a nominal victory from Clinton's delegate edge, there will be barbecue. I find the notion so distasteful that we might effectively emerge from the primary contest with a draw, with the candidate to be selected then by backroom bargaining, intra-party intrigue, and superdelegate shuffling, that I'm definitely holding out hope for that queer Texas orneriness to see this contest finished. Hook 'em hope! Remember the Alamo!

* Note that the Texas system is a semi-open primary. Paul supporters will need to declare before entering in the booth that they wish to vote on the Republican ballot (no matter how or whether they're registered with the parties). Two things could cost Paul votes: ignorance of Paul's party status (he's not the head of the Re-Love-Ution party or however you write that) or distaste for voting on the GOP ticket (after all, there are twenty other contests on the ballot, none of which offer an equivalent protest-option candidate for liberal dumbass college students).

UPDATE: Burnt Orange Report breaks down exactly how Texas delegates are awarded (in fewer than 5,000 words).

Posted by Kriston at February 12, 2008 8:54 AM